tourism contribution to gdp in pakistan

About Pakistan

Pakistan gdp and tourism: a symbiotic relationship.

Table of contents

Historical context of tourism in pakistan, economic contributions of tourism, challenges facing the tourism industry, case studies of tourist destinations, development of the tourism sector.

Key Milestones and Growth

Gdp and revenue generation, job creation and employment, security concerns, infrastructure deficiencies, government policies, northern areas: gilgit-baltistan.

Historical Sites: Mohenjo-Daro, Taxila

Peshawar: History, Culture, and Modern Life

Pakistan Independence Day: History and Significance

You may like

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

7 Curious Cat Behaviors and Why They Do Them

Richard Simmons: A Life Dedicated to Fitness and Joy

Indian Stories

Iconic Pakistani Personalities Throughout History

Top 10 Online Platforms for Remote Jobs Earning Opportunities

Minar e Pakistan: The Iconic Monument of Pakistan

The Rise of ChatGPT in the Workplace

Colorful Festivals: Celebrations in Pakistan

Exploring Pakistan’s Cultural Diversity

10 Effective Ways for Online Earning in Pakistan

Pakistan’s Economic Outlook: Opportunities & Challenges

No spam. We promise.

Pakistan Travel & Tourism Economic Impact Factsheet

Discover the total economic contribution that the Travel & Tourism sector brings to Pakistan and the world in this data-rich, two-page factsheet.

Discover the total economic contribution that the Travel & Tourism sector brings to the Pakistan’s economies and to the world in this data-rich, two-page factsheet.

Create an account for free or login to download

Over the next few weeks we will be releasing the newest Economic Impact Research factsheets for a wide range of economies and regions. If the factsheet you're interested in is not yet available,  sign up to be notified via the form on this page .

Factsheet details

This factsheet highlights the importance of Travel & Tourism to Pakistan across many metrics, and features details such as:

• Contribution of the sector to overall GDP and employment
• Comparisons between 2019 and 2023
• Forecasts for 2024 and 2034
• International and domestic visitor spending
• Proportion of leisure vs business spending
• Top 5 inbound and outbound markets

This factsheet highlights the importance of Travel & Tourism to the Pakistan across many metrics, and features details such as:

• Contribution of the sector to overall GDP and employment in the group and globally
• Contribution of the sector to overall GDP and employment in the region and globally

This factsheet highlights the importance of T&T to this city across many metrics, and features details such as:

• Contribution of the sector to overall GDP and employment in the city
• Comparisons between 2019, 2020 and 2021, plus 2022 forecast
• Proportion of the T&T at city level towards overall T&T contribution at a country level
• Top 5 inbound source markets

Report sponsors

Research support partners.

Other factsheets you may like

Tonga fact sheet, kiribati fact sheet, saudi arabia fact sheet.

Promoting Responsible Tourism in Pakistan’s North

Pakistan’s tourist attractions are diverse

World Bank Pakistan

Growing up, Muhammad Numan saw a cleaner, more natural environment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s tourist destinations. But as time passed and tourism surged, the local landscape he once knew began to change. The influx of tourists resulted in a growing pile of litter across the otherwise scenic sites in the north.

The travel and tourism sector’s total contribution to Pakistan’s GDP was 5.9 percent in 2022 and 4.2 million jobs.  This is sub-optimal considering the diverse tourist sites located across the country. Pakistan attracted ~US$ 16 billion in visitor spending in 2022 which is projected to touch ~US$ 30 billion in 2033.

Pakistan experienced an unprecedented surge in domestic tourism immediately after the Covid induced travel restrictions were lifted: For instance, in 2021 and 2022, over 1.2 million domestic and international tourists visited the country’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province alone .

To manage this increasing all-season footfall of visitors while harnessing its understated economic potential, the local authorities, communities, and private sector require resources, equipment and training without losing focus on green and inclusive tourism.

Determined to make a change, Numan, who now works as a manager at a local hotel in Swat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, sought ways to mitigate the negative impact of the tourism industry on the ecosystem. That is when he came across the “Travel Responsibly for Experiencing Eco-tourism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa” (TREK) initiative – a partnership between the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, World Bank (WB) and Nestlé Pakistan to promote and support responsible tourism initiatives.

TREK complements the ongoing activities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Integrated Tourism Development Project (KITE) project for heritage preservation and tourism infrastructure development. Since 2020, it has completed awareness campaigns for tourists, and training of local communities and hospitality businesses on waste management. TREK has trained over 650 participants from more than 150 hotels and restaurants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s tourist areas. The beneficiaries also included local communities, local authorities and academia of Peshawar, Nathiagali, Abbottabad, Swat , Naran and Chitral districts.

These trainings concentrated on solid waste minimization, segregation, management, and recycling techniques. Public service messages on responsible tourism were also launched through social media and radio campaigns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and cities of Islamabad and Lahore. Most country’s domestic tourists are concentrated in these geographies and were thus able to receive communication on tourist helplines on the importance of keeping the sites litter-free.

10,000 reusable bags were distributed to tourists and the hotel association in tourist hotspots aiming to encourage their use and minimize littering. In parallel, the IDA-financed KITE project provided waste bins, garbage collection and compacting machinery to the local authorities in Nathiagali, Naran, Chitral and Kumrat districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a few locations in Punjab province, and installed 50 tourist information signboards to complement the awareness campaigns.

Tourist information sign boards in Galiyat, Pakistan

TREK Awareness Workshop for Community and Local Government Participants

Incorporating the knowledge from these sessions, like several other participants, Numan introduced eco-friendly practices at his hotel. He also spearheads a community-funded clean-up initiative in his hometown of Mardan district. This initiative has transformed into a community-driven effort, with residents actively participating in regular clean-up drives. Such sustainable transformations encapsulate the very essence of what TREK envisions for communities throughout the province and beyond.

TREK has propelled its partners towards impactful activities by encouraging collaboration with the private sector. Its partner in the initiative, Nestlé Pakistan, is taking concrete actions to create circular systems that make it easier to collect, recycle and reuse products that use plastic. It is committed to designing 100 percent of its plastic packaging for recycling and expects to achieve a 95 percent target by 2025.

The Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has allocated resources and supports its teams to ensure green and inclusive destination management in partnership with the private sector.

The project has also provided machinery for snow removal and solid waste management to local authorities to improve accessibility, traffic flow and promote sustainable tourism in the province.

TREK's inclusivity stands out, inviting participants from diverse backgrounds, including women, youth, and the transgender community.  Zareen Akhtar, a social worker, and human rights activist who underwent TREK training, testified to the program's transformative impact. She acknowledged the newfound knowledge she gained, eager to share it with others. She emphasized that she’s one of the many women in this region who have had the opportunity to attend these trainings. “Inclusion of women not only has a wider social impact but also a major mindset shift in the region, allowing for a cohesive awareness within the social fabric of the community.”

Initiatives like TREK have the power to transform the tourism landscape in some of Pakistan's most pristine destinations and ensure that future generations continue to enjoy these in years to come. In its next phase, TREK will integrate additional players from the private and financial sectors of the country to launch activities that support community empowerment and investment mobilization for job creation.

By Kiran Afzal , Senior Private Sector Specialist, World Bank Pakistan,  Touseef Khalid , Project Director, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Integrated Tourism Development (KITE) Project, and  Sheikh Waqar Ahmad , Head of Corporate Affairs and Sustainability, Nestlé Pakistan.

This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. To learn more about cookies, click here .

The quest of tourism and overall well-being: the developing economy of Pakistan

PSU Research Review

ISSN : 2399-1747

Article publication date: 13 June 2020

Issue publication date: 10 September 2021

This study aims to examine the causal relationship between tourism and overall well-being. The main objective of this research is to inform the policymakers that tourism can play a vital role in shaping the overall well-being in the developing economies.

Design/methodology/approach

This investigation used several time series techniques and procedures that include bounds test and autoregressive distributed lag mechanism to analyze the relationship between tourism and overall well-being in Pakistan by using time series data for the period 1980-2016.

The findings suggest a significant positive relationship between tourism and overall well-being both in the short and long run. The authors find that tourism and overall well-being affect each other positively.

Practical implications

This research indicates that policymakers and government can improve the overall well-being through tourism development. However, tourism policies and long-term planning should be focused on sustainable developments for achieving long-term goals. Besides, special incentives should be provided to the private sector for tourism development.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first investigation that examines the causal relationships between tourism and overall well-being through objective indicators in a developing economy. This study fills the immense literature gap and provides new directions to scholars to investigate the mentioned relationship through objective indicators.

• Overall well-being
• Developing economy

Khan, A. , Bibi, S. , Lyu, J. , Alam, M. , Khan, M.M. and Nurunnabi, M. (2021), "The quest of tourism and overall well-being: the developing economy of Pakistan", PSU Research Review , Vol. 5 No. 2, pp. 120-140. https://doi.org/10.1108/PRR-07-2019-0022

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2020, Asif Khan, Sughra Bibi, Jiaying Lyu, Mohammad Alam, Muhammad Mussa Khan and Mohammad Nurunnabi.

Published in PSU Research Review . Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode

1. Introduction

Well-being has been a philosophical and sociological concern since the beginning of time, and research has been extended over time to various disciplines such as psychology, health sciences, tourism and economics ( Smith and Diekmann, 2017) . Tourism studies have become more focused on well-being in the past few decades, both from a theoretical and methodological perspective ( Smith and Diekmann, 2017) . Extensive research reveals that tourism experiences and activities have a consequence on tourists’ life satisfaction and the well-being of residents. Tourism activities contribute to several life domains such as leisure, self-esteem, self-identity, family life, health and culture ( Uysal et al. , 2016) . Historically, most of the research focused on the impacts of tourism on the resident’s community, such as cultural, environmental, economic, emotional and social ( Andereck et al. , 2005 ; Moscardo et al. , 2013 ; Sharpley, 2014 ; Uysal et al. , 2012c ; Ap, 1992 ; Nunkoo and Gursoy, 2012) . However, tourism developments also influence quality of life (QOL) or overall well-being of the local community ( Liburd et al. , 2012 ; Uysal et al. , 2012b ; Uysal et al. , 2012a) and became a primary concern for community leaders and governments ( Aref, 2011 ; Lipovčan et al. , 2014 ; Aman et al. , 2013 ; Benckendorff et al. , 2009 ; Moscardo et al. , 2013) . However, these studies have been conducted in developed countries, and less is known about the effects of tourism on well-being in the developing world. This investigation focuses explicitly on tourism’s contributions to the overall well-being in the developing economy of Pakistan.

According to WTTC (2017), tourism’s direct contribution to Pakistan’s economy was $7.6bn (2.7% of total GDP) in 2016 and it suggests an increase of 5.6% per annum from 2017 to 2027. In 2016, the tourism sector in Pakistan directly produced 1,337,500 jobs, 2.3% of total employment, which is expected to rise by 2.5% per annum to 1,757,000 jobs in 2027 (WTTC, 2017). The investment in the tourism sector in 2016 was recorded 9.3% of the total investment, approximately $3.6bn (WTTC, 2017).

Tourism developments improve the quality of residents’ lives by addressing the economic, social, cultural and recreational concerns, and provide certain other benefits ( Benckendorff et al. , 2009 ; McCool and Martin, 1994 ; Peters and Schuckert, 2014) . Scholars have used subjective indicators to measure the effects of tourism over well-being ( Andereck and Nyaupane, 2011 ; Aref, 2011 ; Gjerald, 2005 ; Khizindar, 2012 ; Matarrita-Cascante, 2010 ; Nichols et al. , 2002 ; Kim et al. , 2013 ; Uysal et al. , 2012b) ; the current authors have used objective indicators to measure the effects of tourism on overall well-being in a developing economy. The current literature is scant about the relationship between tourism and overall well-being in developing economies. Since 2005 onwards, tourism and overall well-being rose simultaneously in Pakistan; however, terrorism razes tourism, which is evident from the shocks in tourism activities in Figure 1 . The present authors seek to propose a novel perspective of tourism and overall well-being by investigating the causal relationships through economic modeling. The assessment of the current research about tourism and well-being is vital for several reasons. First, this research focuses on the effectiveness of tourism in the enhancement of overall well-being. Second, it assesses the role of overall well-being in supporting tourism activities in a country.

Moreover, this study provides excellent insights to policymakers, politicians and government officials that tourism and well-being contribute to each other. Therefore, policymakers can use tourism development as a policy agenda for the improvements in the overall well-being of general masses. Besides, this investigation contributes to the current literature on the relationship between tourism and well-being in several novel ways. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first research that investigates the relationship between tourism and overall well-being in the context of a developing country. Second, we have used objective indicators for examining the relationship between tourism and well-being, while the current literature is mostly focused on subjective measures. Third, we deal with well-being as macro phenomena and our findings suggest that tourism can play a vital role in the enhancement of overall well-being in the developing economies. Fourth, scant studies used econometrics model to map the relationship between tourism and well-being; hence, this study focused on econometrics.

Furthermore, to conduct this investigation, the time-series data of Pakistan from 1980 to 2016 has been used. Several time-series techniques have been applied; for instance, the bounds test approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Augmented Dicky–Fuller (ADF), Philips and Perron (PP) and Zivot–Andrew root tests are applied for checking the stationarity of variables and to fulfill the primary assumption of the bounds test approach that all variables should be stationary at I(0), I(1) or a combination of both. Afterward, bounds test approach is used for confirming the long-run relationship between the variables; then, ARDL model is applied for the estimation of long-run relationships. Several diagnostics tests, for instance, Breusch–Godfrey correlation LM test, Breusch Pagan Godfrey heteroskedasticity test, Jarque–Bera normality tests, cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM square tests have been conducted for checking the stability of the estimated models. The main findings of the study suggest that tourism positively contributes to the overall well-being, while an increase in overall well-being increases tourism activities. This research is composed of six sections; Section 1 deals with the introduction. Section 2 deals with the relevant literature. Section 3 covers the methodology and estimation strategy. Section 4 describes the findings of the study and Section 5 is composed of the discussion. Finally, Section 6 deals with conclusion, practical implications, limitations and future research prospects.

2. Literature review

In the entire world, tourism is considered as a mean of economic development and has become a part of the strategic planning almost in every country ( Uysal et al. , 2016) . Tourism has significant effects on the well-being of the stakeholders ( Jurowski et al. , 1997) . Tourism research has concentrated on the well-being through the associated terms such as life satisfaction, QOL, wellness and happiness ( Smith and Diekmann, 2017 ; de Bloom et al. , 2010 ; Dolnicar et al. , 2012 ; Gilbert and Abdullah, 2004 ; Neal et al. , 2004 ; Uysal et al. , 2016 ; Smith and Puczkó, 2008 ; Nawijn, 2011a ; Nawijn, 2011b) . The tourism industry is facing numerous obstacles such as socioeconomic uncertainty, terrorism, deficient technology, ecological and sustainability issues, and the furthermost risky is the inadequate dissemination of tourism reimbursements.

There is no definite consensus concerning the definition of tourism. But when it comes to explanation within the basic terms, it can be summed up that:

Tourism is a collection of activities, services, and industries which deliver a travel experience comprising transportation, accommodation, eating and drinking establishments, retail shops, entertainment businesses and other hospitality services provided for individuals or groups traveling away from home ( Robert and Goeldner, 1986) .

The mentioned components in the above definition directly or indirectly contribute to the well-being of the tourists and destination residents.

Prominent scholars such as Uysal et al. (2012a) , Uysal et al. (2012b) and Uysal et al. (2012c) proposed two models for examining the relationship between tourism and well-being from a system point of view; the first model is based on variables that impact the well-being of tourists and the second focuses on the factors that influence the well-being of the host communities. The key focus in the first model shows tourists’ experiences that contribute to QOL ( Dann, 2012) , satisfaction with life domains and overall well-being ( Sirgy et al. , 2011) . The second model illustrates how tourism influences the living conditions of the host community at a destination by affecting economic conditions, infrastructure, life amenities and destination competitiveness; in fact, it contributes to the overall life domains of the community as a whole ( Crouch and Ritchie, 2012) .

Research suggests that tourism contributes to residents and tourists well-being, for instance, studies suggest that tourism activities refresh mind and body ( Bushell and Sheldon, 2009) , improve awareness of natural and cultural heritage, maximize self-esteem ( Hartwell et al. , 2018) and help in personality development and self-identity ( Hartwell et al. , 2018 ; Dolnicar et al. , 2012) . The research on tourism contribution to the resident community is examined through the impacts on QOL and its consequences toward tourism development ( Jamal and Dredge, 2014 ; Sharpley and Telfer, 2014 ; Andereck et al. , 2005) . The trends suggest that the impacts of tourism vary according to the level of individual contact, tourism development stage and benefit obtained from tourism ( Hartwell et al. , 2018) . Wiseman and Brasher (2008) suggest that community well-being and its dynamics can be better understood by community engagement and policy paradigms at a destination. Besides, scholars pointed out that traditional approaches of measuring well-being has been proved methodologically problematic ( Hartwell et al. , 2018) and offered new conceptual paradigms for measuring specific dimensions and values that can contribute to the life domain of the destination community ( Tyrrell et al. , 2013 ; Tyrrell et al. , 2010) . What is debatable from these studies is that the prevailing methodologies of measuring tourism contribution to the community well-being is questionable and required a mix of subjective and objective measures that can reconcile the deficiencies of each other. Unfortunately, objective side of measuring tourism impacts on community at large has been ignored. Hence, this research focuses on the objective indicators to measure the tourism influence on community at macro level.

It is evident from various studies that governments, politicians and community leaders consider tourism as a substantial instrument for enhancing employment prospects, revenues, social interrelation and economic diversity ( Kim et al. , 2013) . The trends suggest that tourism has both progressive and adverse impacts on well-being ( Kim et al. , 2013 ; Allen et al. , 1988 ; Prentice, 1993 ; Tosun, 2002 ; Deaton, 2008) . Researchers have examined the effects of tourism on social well-being ( McCabe et al. , 2010 ; Coulthard et al. , 2011 ; Morgan et al. , 2015) . Additionally, scholars have captured the influence of tourism on cultural well-being ( Uysal et al. , 2016 ; Kousis, 1989 ; Hall and Brown, 2006 ; Kim et al. , 2013) and on environmental well-being ( Butler, 1999 ; Holden, 2003 ; Andereck, 1995 ; Farrell and Runyan, 1991) . Scholars have also investigated the rapport of tourism and material well-being ( Konu, 2010 ; León, 2007 ; Pesonen and Komppula, 2010) . The study by Kim et al. (2013) expresses that tourism influences residents’ material as well as non-material well-being. The research by Woo et al. (2015) conveys that tourism development has impacted both material and non-material well-being of the residents. Trends suggest that a mix of objective and subjective indicators such as poverty, per capita income, crime rate, pollution and perceptions have been used for measuring well-being ( Kim et al. , 2013 ; Crotts and Holland, 1993) . Tourism activities contribute to numerous life spheres such as household, social, leisure, economic and cultural aspects of life ( Beeton, 2006) .

A number of countries are developing their rural areas by means of tourism ( Ashley et al. , 2000 ; Roe et al. , 2004 ; Beeton, 2006) and empowering the less-privileged class of the society by providing occupational openings that support the overall well-being ( Chant, 2005 ; Cukier et al. , 1996 ; Roe et al. , 2004) and enrich self-esteem ( Gu and Ryan, 2008 ; Wang and Xu, 2015) . Tourism improves the standard of living and offers avenues for employment ( Ko and Stewart, 2002 ; Upchurch and Teivane, 2000) . Scholars submit that tourism growth enhances cultural exchanges and provides leisure prospects for natives and tourists ( Stylidis et al. , 2014 ; Dyer et al. , 2007) .

Studies reveal that tourism development contributes to the economic prosperity and well-being of the community ( Raymond and Brown, 2007) . Moreover, in distant geographies of several countries, tourism has enhanced the socio-economic well-being of the residents ( Briedenhann and Wickens, 2004 ; Oakes, 2005) . In most of the developing countries where tourism development is in the nascent stage, it has been regarded as a positive contributor to the overall well-being ( Kim et al. , 2013 ; Uysal et al. , 2012a ; Sharpley, 2014 ; Woo et al. , 2015 ; Uysal et al. , 2012c) . However, some of the related works are summarized in Table 1 .

3. Methodology

This study explores the relationships between tourism and overall well-being in a developing economy. Annual time-series data of Pakistan has been collected from the World Bank online depository and different versions of Pakistan statistical yearbooks for the period 1980-2016. In this research, the literacy rate represents social well-being (LNSWB); life expectancy represents health well-being (LNHWB), Human Development Index (HDI) represents overall well-being (LNOWB), and tourism receipts (LNTOUR) represent tourism activities. A dummy variable is used for measuring terrorism shocks. The data has been transformed by taking the natural log of all variables. The details of all variables are provided in Table 2 .

Scholars and international organizations such as Katz et al. (1983) , Council (2011) and Robine and Ritchie (1991) have used life expectancy as an overall measure of population health. The literacy rate has been regarded as a direct measure of life achievements and access to the minimum level of education; HDI is a compound indicator of overall well-being ( Cooke et al. , 2007) . International organizations such as Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also used the same type of indicators to measure well-being ( Beaumont, 2011) .

Scholars have applied ARDL model on panel and time-series data in tourism research ( Lin et al. , 2015 ; Liu and Pratt, 2017 ; Katircioglu, 2009 ; Adnan et al. , 2013) . This research used the ARDL model to estimate the long- and short-run relationship between tourism and overall well-being. Health and material well-being were taken as control variables. Besides, ARDL and other statistical tools are used to analyze well-being, tourism, economic growth and other factors ( Gebrehiwot, 2016 ; Ahmad and Riaz, 2011 ; Shahbaz and Aamir, 2008 ; Lee et al. , 2013 ; Ridderstaat et al. , 2016) . The following equation (1) and (2) are assumed to analyze the relationship between the mentioned variables. (1) LNOW B t = β 0 + β 1 ( LNSW B t ) + β 2 ( LNHW B t ) + β 3 ( LNTOU R t ) + β 4 ( Dumm y t ) + μ t (2) LNTOU R t = β 0 + β 1 ( LNOW B t ) + β 2 ( LNSW B t ) + β 3 ( LNHW B t ) + β 4 ( Dumm y t ) + μ t

Where β 0 is constant; β 1 , β 2 , β 3 and β 4 are the parameters; and µ t is error term, assumed to be normally distributed.

3.1 Estimation strategy

This investigation used the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration developed by Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Pesaran et al. (2000) . Traditional approaches of co-integration such as Johansen and Juselius (1990) , Phillips and Hansen (1990) and Engle and Granger (1987) have certain demerits in comparison to ARDL bounds test approach. The traditional approaches can be used only when variables are stationary at the order I(1) while the ARDL bounds test approach can be used whether the variables are stationary at I(0) or I(1), or a combination of both. The ARDL approach is appropriate for the analysis of the present data because of small sample size ( Nkoro and Uko, 2016) . The ARDL error correction model accommodates satisfactory lags that capture the data generation process in general to specific framework ( Laurenceson and Chai, 2003) . Under the ARDL approach, equations (1) and (2) are molded as under for the ARDL: (3) Δ ( LNOW B t ) = β 0 + ∑ i = 1 q β 1 i Δ ( LNOW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 2 i Δ ( LNSW B t − 1 )   + ∑ i = 1 q β 3 i Δ ( LNHW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 4 i Δ ( LNTOU R t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 5 i Δ ( Dumm y t − 1 ) + β 6 ( LNOW B t − 1 ) + β 7 ( LNSW B t − 1 ) +   β 8 ( LNHW B t − 1 ) + β 9 ( LNTOU R t − 1 ) + β 10 ( Dumm y t − 1 ) + μ t (4) Δ ( LNTOU R t ) = β 0 + ∑ i = 1 q β 1 i Δ ( LNTOU R t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 2 i Δ ( LNOW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 3 i Δ ( LNSW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 4 i Δ ( LNHW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 5 i Δ ( Dumm y t − 1 ) + β 6 ( LNTOU R t − 1 ) + β 7 ( LNOW B t − 1 ) +   β 8 ( LNSW B t − 1 ) + β 9 ( LNHW B t − 1 ) + β 10 ( Dumm y t − 1 ) + μ t  

In equations (3) and (4) , the parameters β 1 , β 2 , β 3 , β 4 and β 5 represent short-run measurements and β 6 , β 7 , β 8 , β 9 and β 10 are the long-run elasticities. Moreover, Δ is the first difference operator and q indicates the optimal lag length. Error correction terms (ECTs) of equations (3) and (4) are given below: (5) Δ ( LNOW B t ) = β 0 + ∑ i = 1 q β 1 i Δ ( LNOW B t − 1 )   + ∑ i = 1 q β 2 i Δ ( LNSW B t − 1 )   + ∑ i = 1 q β 3 i Δ ( LNHW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 4 i Δ ( LNTOU R t − 1 )   + ∑ i = 1 q β 5 i Δ ( Dumm y t − 1 ) + γEC T t − 1 + μ t (6) Δ ( LNTOU R t ) = β 0 + ∑ i = 1 q β 1 i Δ ( LNTOU R t − 1 )   + ∑ i = 1 q β 2 i Δ ( LNOW B t − 1 )   + ∑ i = 1 q β 3 i Δ ( LNSW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 4 i Δ ( LNHW B t − 1 ) + ∑ i = 1 q β 5 i Δ ( Dumm y t − 1 ) + γEC T t − 1 + μ t

In equations (5) and (6) , q represents the optimal lag length, γ is the speed of adjustment parameter and ECT represents the error correction term, derived from long-run relationships. The subsequent step in the ARDL approach is to calculate F-statistic and to equate it with tabulated critical bounds to examine whether the long-run co-integration exists or not ( Pesaran et al. , 2001 ; Shahbaz, 2013) . Besides, a dummy variable is used for measuring the effects of terrorism from 2002 to 2013.

The null hypotheses for equations (3) and (4) can be stated as H0 : β 6 = β 7 = β 8 = β 9 = β 10 = 0, which assume that no long-run relationship between the variables exists, whereas the alternative hypothesis for co-integration can be Ha : β 6 ≠ β 7 ≠ β 8 ≠ β 9 ≠ β 10 ≠ 0. If the F-statistic calculated value is larger than the upper bounds (F > F U ) at 1%, 5% or 10% significance level, the decision will be in favor of co-integration, if it falls shorter than the lower bounds (F L > F), there will be no co-integration and in case F-statistic falls between lower and upper bounds (F L < F< F U ), the result will be called inconclusive. ARDL model assumes that variables should be stationary of I(0) or I(1) or the combination of both; three different unit root tests are applied to authenticate whether the variables are stationary or not, i.e. ADF test ( Dickey and Fuller, 1979) , PP test ( Phillips and Perron, 1988) and Zivot–Andrews test ( Zivot and Andrews, 1992) . ADF test is based on the following equation: (7) Δ Y t =   Y t =   α 0 +   α 1 Y t − 1 + ∑ i = 0 n d j Δ Y t − 1   + ε i

Whereas the PP unit root test can be illustrated algebraically as: (8) Δ Y t = α  + ρ* Y t − 1 + ε i 

4. Findings

The Jarque–Bera statistics in Table 3 confirm that all the variables are normally distributed. The normality specifies the authenticity of data and allows us for further analysis.

The outcomes of ADF and PP tests in Table 4 reveal that the variables are stationary either at I(0) or at I(1). The output recommends that the ARDL bounds test approach is appropriate for estimating the relationship between the mentioned variables. Scholars have criticized ADF and PP tests that they do not provide any information about structural breaks, which may cause biasedness ( Baum, 2003) .

Zivot–Andrews unit root test provides evidence about structural breaks; hence, Zivot–Andrews unit root test is used for checking the robustness of the results in Table 3 . The findings of the Zivot–Andrews test are given in Table 5 .

Feridun and Shahbaz (2010) suggest that F-statistic is sensitive to the lag order of the variables. Hence, appropriate lag length selection is essential for applying the ARDL approach. The smaller the value of the criteria, the better will be the model. In the case of current data, the Akaike information criterion shows the minimum value at lag 4; hence, the optimal lag length is 4. Bounds test results are summarized in Table 6 ; the computed F-statistic values for Models 1 and 2 are greater than the upper bound at 1% significance level. This confirms the co-integration between the variables, which authenticate long-run relationships between overall well-being and tourism for the period 1980-2016.

The long-run relationships for both models are summarized in Table 7 . The results of ARDL Model 1 with optimal lags (1, 4, 4, 2, 2) recommend that a positive relationship exists between tourism and overall well-being. The estimates of ARDL Model 1 suggest that 10% increase in tourism increases overall well-being by 0.42%.

However, the findings of Model 2 with optimal lags (2, 3, 4, 4, 2) suggest that overall and health well-being are positively associated with tourism. The results of Model 2 recommend that a 1% increase in overall and health well-being increases tourism by 20.48% and 59.73%, respectively. All the diagnostic tests confirm that no violation of any linear regression assumptions occurs. This indicates that models are free of specification problems.

The short-run elasticities and ECTs are reported in Table 8 . The ECT specifies the speed of adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium. The ECT coefficient demonstrates how speedily variables return to equilibrium; it must be significant at 5% level, having a negative sign ( Pahlavani et al. , 2005) . Banerjee et al. (1998) suggest that a high value of ECT is further proof of a long-run stable relationship. ECT values for Models 1 and 2 are −0.777 and −0.886, correspondingly significant at 1%, proposing that a deviation from equilibrium will be corrected in the future by 77.7% and 88.6%, respectively. The calculated short-run elasticity for tourism has a significant positive relationship with overall well-being in Model 1; the coefficient of tourism indicates that a 10% increase in tourism will enhance overall well-being by 0.21% within one year. Moreover, the dummy variable is negative in the short run, indicating that terrorists’ activities have negative effects on the overall well-being. Furthermore, the short-run dynamics of Model 2 suggest that overall and health well-being are positively associated with tourism. The short-run coefficients of Model 2 suggest that 1% of overall and health well-being increase tourism by 17.12% and 69.86%, respectively.

The graphs of CUSUM and CUSUM square presented in Figures 2-5 reveal that plots for both CUSUM and CUSUM square are between the critical boundaries at a 5% level of significance. The results of CUSUM and CUSUM square authenticate the accuracy and stability of long- and short-run parameters of the ARDL models.

5. Discussion

The World Tourism Organization proposes tourism as a tool through which the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can be accomplished ( UNWTO and UNDP , 2017). Well-planned tourism helps to improve human well-being by reducing poverty, hunger, ensure education for all and sustainable development. Literature trends reveal that Tourism has a great potential to accelerate progress across the SDGs ( UNWTO/GTERC, 2017 ; Adnan et al. , 2013) . The tourism sector can generate quality jobs for durable growth, reduce poverty and offer incentives for environmental conservation ( UNWTO and UNDP, 2017) . The findings of this study indicate that tourism has significant positive effects on overall well-being both in the short and long run. A 10% increase in tourism activities increases overall well-being by 0.42% and 0.48%, respectively, in long and short run. Hence, a focus on sustainable tourism development in the developing economies would be beneficial for economic growth, poverty alleviation and improvement in education. Our proxy HDI for overall well-being is a combined indicator of economic growth, life expectancy and access to education; therefore, tourism development in the developing nations would collectively provide support directly or indirectly to the pillars of well-being. Through the development of tourism, Pakistan will be able to achieve some of the SDGs, either directly or indirectly. The results also suggest that an increase in the overall well-being increases tourism activities; 1% increase in overall well-being increases tourism by 20.48% and 17.13%, respectively, in the long and short run. Several scholars argued that poverty, hunger and deficiencies in education facilities significantly contribute to crimes, social evils and terrorists activities in a country ( Alcalá et al. , 2017) , which are the major obstacles for tourism development; hence, rise in overall well-being would help Pakistan to overcome the social evils prevailing in the country. Thus, tourism development can improve the well-being of the people, and such improvement will accelerate tourism activities as suggested by our results. Moreover, the findings are in line with the results of several scholars who suggested that tourism enhances local communities’ well-being, such as Crouch and Ritchie (1999) and Slee et al. (1997) .

6. Conclusion

Debate on the relationship between tourism and well-being has produced a vast literature, but the results are still inconclusive and remained open for discussion. To supplement the previous findings, we attempted to capture the relationship between tourism and overall well-being by using econometric modeling for a developing country. This paper sets out to explore the empirical relationship between tourism and overall well-being. In doing so, it was revealed that tourism and overall well-being have significant impacts on each other. The existing literature suggests that tourism contributes to the economic, social, cultural, environmental and emotional aspects of the host community ( Adnan et al. , 2013 ; Allen et al. , 1988 ; Uysal et al. , 2012a) . Pakistan is a country of natural, cultural and heritage wonders. A well-thought tourism development would be helpful in the enrichment of job creation, tourism SMEs development and economic growth; moreover, it would be supportive in the achievement of SDGs. The quantitative estimates of our models suggest that tourism development in Pakistan would enhance the living standards. Though previous studies through subjective indicators have suggested that tourism can improve well-being, but to the best of our knowledge, scant literature is available on objective indicators. Besides, this research suggests that well-being positively contributes to tourism; hence, it provides evidence for a bi-directional causal relationship between tourism and overall well-being. This study contributes to the current literature on the relationship between tourism and overall well-being in several ways. First, this study investigates the relationship between tourism and well-being on a macro level. Second, we used objective indicators instead of subjective, hence, provide a new methodological approach. Third, we found that tourism and well-being are bi-directional. Fourth, tourism development can be used as a strategic tool to uplift the well-being in developing countries. Therefore, in light of the bi-directional relationship between tourism and overall well-being, it is suggested that both sides of the equation positively contribute to each other, thus, better tourism and welfare policies at national level will improve the living standards of the residents and also increase tourism activities.

6.1 Practical implications, limitations and future prospects

This investigation is of particular importance for policymakers, community leaders and politicians in Pakistan. Around the world, the private sector plays a vital role in tourism development; hence, Pakistan should provide finances to private sector for the required development. The institutional mechanism should be revised for sustainable tourism development to achieve maximum SDGs. Tourism policymakers should strengthen and facilitate the dialogues between the related stakeholders for taking advantage of tourism’s inter-linkages to have better impact on well-being. A better financial system should be developed for the development of tourism SMEs in rural areas of Pakistan. Academia should be involved and funded for in-depth tourism research for the development of knowledge, strategies and research-based policies. There are certain limitations to the current study. First, the outcomes may correctly address the case of some developing countries but may not be fully applicable to other nations. Second, it provides a macro view of the subject mentioned, which may or may not be true at a micro-level. In future, scholars can find the relationship between tourism and overall well-being by using panel data. This research puts a call for scholars to further research the relationship between tourism and well-being by using different combination of objective indicators.

Variables trends

CUSUM Model 1

CUSUM square Model 1

CUSUM Model 2

CUSUM square Model 2

Summary of related literature

Variables details

Descriptive statistic

Unit root tests

*, ** and *** refer to level of significance at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. () represent t -statistic

Adnan , H. , Qazi , M. , Ali , K. and Rana , E. ( 2013 ), “ Tourism-led growth hypothesis: a case study of Pakistan ”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research , Vol. 18 , pp. 303 - 313 .

Ahmad , K. and Riaz , A. ( 2011 ), “ An econometric model of poverty in Pakistan: ARDL approach to co-integration ”, Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences , Vol. 1 , pp. 75 - 84 .

Alcalá , H.E. , Sharif , M.Z. and Samari , G. ( 2017 ), “ Social determinants of health, violent radicalization, and terrorism: a public health perspective ”, Health Equity , Vol. 1 No. 1 , pp. 87 - 95 .

Allen , L.R. , Long , P.T. , Perdue , R.R. and Kieselbach , S. ( 1988 ), “ The impact of tourism development on residents’ perceptions of community life ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 27 No. 1 , pp. 16 - 21 .

Aman , O. , Manap , A.A. , Ismail , A.F. , Kudus , N. and Rahmiati , F. ( 2013 ), “ The impact of tourism innovation on quality of life of residents in the community: a case study of Sungai Melaka ”, Journal of Human Capital Development (JHCD) , Vol. 6 , pp. 27 - 40 .

Andereck , K.L. ( 1995 ), “ Environmental consequences of tourism: a review of recent research ”, Environmental Consequences of Tourism: a Review of Recent Research , pp. 77 - 81 .

Andereck , K.L. and Nyaupane , G.P. ( 2011 ), “ Exploring the nature of tourism and quality of life perceptions among residents ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 50 No. 3 , pp. 248 - 260 .

Andereck , K.L. and Vogt , C.A. ( 2000 ), “ The relationship between residents’ attitudes toward tourism and tourism development options ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 39 No. 1 , pp. 27 - 36 .

Andereck , K.L. , Valentine , K.M. , Knopf , R.C. and Vogt , C.A. ( 2005 ), “ Residents’ perceptions of community tourism impacts ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 32 No. 4 , pp. 1056 - 1076 .

Angeloni , S. ( 2013 ), “ Cultural tourism and well-being of the local population in Italy ”, Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management , Vol. 8 , pp. 17 - 31 .

Ap , J. ( 1992 ), “ Residents’ perceptions on tourism impacts ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 19 No. 4 , pp. 665 - 690 .

Aref , F. ( 2011 ), “ The effects of tourism on quality of life: a case study of Shiraz, Iran ”, Life Science Journal , Vol. 8 , pp. 26 - 30 .

Ashley , C. Boyd , C. and Goodwin , H. ( 2000 ), “ Pro-poor tourism: putting poverty at the heart of the tourism agenda ”,

Bachleitner , R. and Zins , A.H. ( 1999 ), “ Cultural tourism in rural communities: the residents’ perspective ”, Journal of Business Research , Vol. 44 No. 3 , pp. 199 - 209 .

Banerjee , A. , Dolado , J. and Mestre , R. ( 1998 ), “ Error‐correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single‐equation framework ”, Journal of Time Series Analysis , Vol. 19 No. 3 , pp. 267 - 283 .

Baum , C.F. ( 2003 ), “ A review of Stata 8.1 and its time series capabilities ”, Working Papers in Economics , 23 .

Beaumont , J. ( 2011 ), “ Measuring national well-being: a discussion paper on domains and measures ”,

Beeton , S. ( 2006 ), Community Development through Tourism , Landlinks Press .

Benckendorff , P. , Edwards , D. , Jurowski , C. , Liburd , J.J. , Miller , G. and Moscardo , G. ( 2009 ), “ Exploring the future of tourism and quality of life ”, Tourism and Hospitality Research , Vol. 9 No. 2 , pp. 171 - 183 .

Briedenhann , J. and Wickens , E. ( 2004 ), “ Tourism routes as a tool for the economic development of rural areas – vibrant hope or impossible dream? ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 25 No. 1 , pp. 71 - 79 .

Bushell , R. and Sheldon , P.J. ( 2009 ), Wellness and Tourism: Mind, Body, Spirit, Place , Cognizant Communication .

Butler , R.W. ( 1999 ), “ Sustainable tourism: a state‐of‐the‐art review ”, Tourism Geographies , Vol. 1 No. 1 , pp. 7 - 25 .

Buzinde , C.N. , Kalavar , J.M. and Melubo , K. ( 2014 ), “ Tourism and community well-being: the case of the Maasai in Tanzania ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 44 , pp. 20 - 35 .

Chant , S. ( 2005 ), “ Gender and tourism employment in Mexico and the Philippines ”, Gender, Work and Tourism , Routledge .

Cooke , M. , Mitrou , F. , Lawrence , D. , Guimond , E. and Beavon , D. ( 2007 ), “ Indigenous well-being in four countries: an application of the UNDP’S human development index to indigenous peoples in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States ”, BMC International Health and Human Rights , Vol. 7 No. 1 , p. 9 .

Coulthard , S. , Johnson , D. and Mcgregor , J.A. ( 2011 ), “ Poverty, sustainability and human wellbeing: a social wellbeing approach to the global fisheries crisis ”, Global Environmental Change , Vol. 21 No. 2 , pp. 453 - 463 .

Council , N.R. ( 2011 ), Accounting for Health and Health Care: approaches to Measuring the Sources and Costs of Their Improvement , National Academies Press .

Crotts , J.C. and Holland , S.M. ( 1993 ), “ Objective indicators of the impact of rural tourism development in the state of Florida ”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism , Vol. 1 No. 2 , pp. 112 - 120 .

Crouch , G.I. and Ritchie , J.B. ( 1999 ), “ Tourism, competitiveness, and societal prosperity ”, Journal of Business Research , Vol. 44 No. 3 , pp. 137 - 152 .

Crouch , G.I. and Ritchie , J.B. ( 2012 ), “ Destination competitiveness and its implications for host-community QOL ”, Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research , Springer .

Cukier , J. , Norris , J. and Wall , G. ( 1996 ), “ The involvement of women in the tourism industry of Bali ”, Journal of Development Studies , Vol. 33 No. 2 , pp. 248 - 270 .

Dann , G.M. ( 2012 ), “ Tourist motivation and quality-of-life: in search of the missing link ”, Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research , Springer .

DE Bloom , J. , Geurts , S.A. , Taris , T.W. , Sonnentag , S. , DE Weerth , C. and Kompier , M.A. ( 2010 ), “ Effects of vacation from work on health and well-being: lots of fun, quickly gone ”, Work and Stress , Vol. 24 , pp. 196 - 216 .

Deaton , A. ( 2008 ), “ Income, health, and well-being around the world: evidence from the gallup world poll ”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives : a Journal of the American Economic Association , Vol. 22 No. 2 , pp. 53 - 72 .

Dickey , D.A. and Fuller , W.A. ( 1979 ), “ Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root ”, Journal of the American Statistical Association , Vol. 74 No. 366 , pp. 427 - 431 .

Dolnicar , S. , Yanamandram , V. and Cliff , K. ( 2012 ), “ The contribution of vacations to quality of life ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 39 No. 1 , pp. 59 - 83 .

Dyer , P. , Gursoy , D. , Sharma , B. and Carter , J. ( 2007 ), “ Structural modeling of resident perceptions of tourism and associated development on the sunshine coast ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 28 No. 2 , pp. 409 - 422 .

Engle , R.F. and Granger , C.W. ( 1987 ), “ Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing ”, Econometrica , Vol. 55 No. 2 , pp. 251 - 276 .

Farrell , B.H. and Runyan , D. ( 1991 ), “ Ecology and tourism ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 18 No. 1 , pp. 26 - 40 .

Feridun , M. and Shahbaz , M. ( 2010 ), “ Fighting terrorism: are military measures effective? Empirical evidence from Turkey ”, Defence and Peace Economics , Vol. 21 No. 2 , pp. 193 - 205 .

Gebrehiwot , K.G. ( 2016 ), “ The impact of human capital development on economic growth in Ethiopia: evidence from ARDL approach to co-integration ”, Bahir Dar Journal of Education , p. 16 .

Gilbert , D. and Abdullah , J. ( 2004 ), “ Holidaytaking and the sense of well-being ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 31 No. 1 , pp. 103 - 121 .

Gjerald , O. ( 2005 ), “ Sociocultural impacts of tourism: a case study from Norway ”, Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change , Vol. 3 No. 1 , pp. 36 - 58 .

Gu , H. and Ryan , C. ( 2008 ), “ Place attachment, identity and community impacts of tourism – the case of a Beijing Hutong ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 29 No. 4 , pp. 637 - 647 .

Hall , D.R. and Brown , F. ( 2006 ), Tourism and Welfare: Ethics, Responsibility and Sustained Well-Being , Cabi .

Hartwell , H. , Fyall , A. , Willis , C. , Page , S. , Ladkin , A. and Hemingway , A. ( 2018 ), “ Progress in tourism and destination wellbeing research ”, Current Issues in Tourism , Vol. 21 No. 16 , pp. 1830 - 1892 .

Holden , A. ( 2003 ), “ In need of new environmental ethics for tourism? ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 30 No. 1 , pp. 94 - 108 .

Jamal , T. and Dredge , D. ( 2014 ), “ Tourism and community development issues ”, R. Sharpley and D. Telfer, Tourism and Development. Concepts and Issues, Second Edition. London: Channel View , pp. 178 - 204 .

Jeon , M.M. , Kang , M.M. and Desmarais , E. ( 2016 ), “ Residents’ perceived quality of life in a cultural-heritage tourism destination ”, Applied Research in Quality of Life , Vol. 11 No. 1 , pp. 105 - 123 .

Johansen , S. and Juselius , K. ( 1990 ), “ Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money ”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , Vol. 52 No. 2 , pp. 169 - 210 .

Jurowski , C. , Uysal , M. and Williams , D.R. ( 1997 ), “ A theoretical analysis of host community resident reactions to tourism ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 36 No. 2 , pp. 3 - 11 .

Katircioglu , S.T. ( 2009 ), “ Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 30 No. 1 , pp. 17 - 20 .

Katz , S. , Branch , L.G. , Branson , M.H. , Papsidero , J.A. , Beck , J.C. and Greer , D.S. ( 1983 ), “ Active life expectancy ”, New England Journal of Medicine , Vol. 309 No. 20 , pp. 1218 - 1224 .

Khizindar , T.M. ( 2012 ), “ Effects of tourism on residents’ quality of life in Saudi Arabia: an empirical study ”, Journal of Hospitality Marketing and Management , Vol. 21 No. 6 , pp. 617 - 637 .

Kim , K. , Uysal , M. and Sirgy , M.J. ( 2013 ), “ How does tourism in a community impact the quality of life of community residents? ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 36 , pp. 527 - 540 .

Ko , D.-W. and Stewart , W.P. ( 2002 ), “ A structural equation model of residents’ attitudes for tourism development ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 23 No. 5 , pp. 521 - 530 .

Konu , H. ( 2010 ), “ Identifying potential wellbeing tourism segments in Finland ”, Tourism Review , Vol. 65 No. 2 , pp. 41 - 51 .

Kousis , M. ( 1989 ), “ Tourism and the family in a rural Cretan community ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 16 No. 3 , pp. 318 - 332 .

Laurenceson , J. and Chai , J.C. ( 2003 ), Financial Reform and Economic Development in China , Edward Elgar Publishing .

Lee , C.G. , Ng , P.K. and Lee , C. ( 2013 ), “ Short-run and long-run causalities between happiness, income and unemployment in Japan ”, Applied Economics Letters , Vol. 20 No. 18 , pp. 1636 - 1639 .

León , Y.M. ( 2007 ), “ The impact of tourism on rural livelihoods in the Dominican Republic’s coastal areas ”, The Journal of Development Studies , Vol. 43 No. 2 , pp. 340 - 359 .

Liburd , J.J. , Benckendorff , P. and Carlsen , J. ( 2012 ), “ Tourism and quality-of-life: how does tourism measure up ?”, Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research , Springer .

Lin , V.S. , Liu , A. and Song , H. ( 2015 ), “ Modeling and forecasting Chinese outbound tourism: an econometric approach ”, Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing , Vol. 32 Nos 1/2 , pp. 34 - 49 .

Lipovčan , L.K. , Brajša-Žganec , N. and Poljanec-Borić , S. ( 2014 ), “ What is good for tourists should be good for residents too: the relationship between the quality of the touristic offer and subjective well-being of residents ”, Tourism Analysis , Vol. 19 No. 6 , pp. 719 - 730 .

Liu , A. and Pratt , S. ( 2017 ), “ Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 60 , pp. 404 - 417 .

McCABE , S. , Joldersma , T. and Li , C. ( 2010 ), “ Understanding the benefits of social tourism: Linking participation to subjective well‐being and quality of life ”, International Journal of Tourism Research , Vol. 12 No. 6 , pp. 761 - 773 .

McCOOL , S.F. and Martin , S.R. ( 1994 ), “ Community attachment and attitudes toward tourism development ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 32 No. 3 , pp. 29 - 34 .

Matarrita-Cascante , D. ( 2010 ), “ Changing communities, community satisfaction, and quality of life: a view of multiple perceived indicators ”, Social Indicators Research , Vol. 98 No. 1 , pp. 105 - 127 .

Meng , F. , Li , X. and Uysal , M. ( 2010 ), “ Tourism development and regional quality of life: the case of China: 旅游发展和区域生活质量: 中国案例研究 ”, Journal of China Tourism Research , Vol. 6 No. 2 , pp. 164 - 182 .

Morgan , N. , Pritchard , A. and Sedgley , D. ( 2015 ), “ Social tourism and well-being in later life ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 52 , pp. 1 - 15 .

Moscardo , G. , Konovalov , E. , Murphy , L. and Mcgehee , N. ( 2013 ), “ Mobilities, community well-being and sustainable tourism ”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism , Vol. 21 No. 4 , pp. 532 - 556 .

Nawijn , J. ( 2011a ), “ Determinants of daily happiness on vacation ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 50 No. 5 , pp. 559 - 566 .

Nawijn , J. ( 2011b ), “ Happiness through vacationing: Just a temporary boost or long-term benefits? ”, Journal of Happiness Studies , Vol. 12 No. 4 , pp. 651 - 665 .

Nawijn , J. and Mitas , O. ( 2012 ), “ Resident attitudes to tourism and their effect on subjective well-being: the case of Palma de Mallorca ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 51 No. 5 , pp. 531 - 541 .

Neal , J.D. , Sirgy , M.J. and Uysal , M. ( 2004 ), “ Measuring the effect of tourism services on travelers’ quality of life: further validation ”, Social Indicators Research , Vol. 69 No. 3 , pp. 243 - 277 .

Nichols , M. , Stitt , B.G. and Giacopassi , D. ( 2002 ), “ Community assessment of the effects of casinos on quality of life ”, Social Indicators Research , Vol. 57 No. 3 , pp. 229 - 262 .

Nkoro , E. and Uko , A.K. ( 2016 ), “ Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation ”, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods , Vol. 5 , pp. 63 - 91 .

Nunkoo , R. and Gursoy , D. ( 2012 ), “ Residents’ support for tourism: an identity perspective ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 39 No. 1 , pp. 243 - 268 .

Oakes , T. ( 2005 ), Tourism and Modernity in China , Routledge .

Pahlavani , M. Wilson , E. and Worthington , A.C. ( 2005 ), “ Trade-GDP nexus in Iran: an application of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model ”,

Perdue , R.R. and Gustke , L. ( 1991 ), “ The effects of tourism development on objective indicators of local quality of life. Tourism: building credibility for a credible industry ”, Proceedings of the Travel and Tourism Research Association twenty-second annual conference, Hyatt Regency Hotel, Long Beach, CA, June 9-13, 1991 , University of UT , pp. 191 - 201 .

Pesaran , M.H. and Shin , Y. ( 1998 ), “ An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis ”, Econometric Society Monographs , Vol. 31 , pp. 371 - 413 .

Pesaran , M.H. , Shin , Y. and Smith , R.J. ( 2000 ), “ Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I (1) variables ”, Journal of Econometrics , Vol. 97 No. 2 , pp. 293 - 343 .

Pesaran , M.H. , Shin , Y. and Smith , R.J. ( 2001 ), “ Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships ”, Journal of Applied Econometrics , Vol. 16 No. 3 , pp. 289 - 326 .

Pesonen , J. and Komppula , R. ( 2010 ), “ Rural wellbeing tourism: Motivations and expectations ”, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management , Vol. 17 No. 1 , pp. 150 - 157 .

Peters , M. and Schuckert , M. ( 2014 ), “ Tourism entrepreneurs’ perception of quality of life: an explorative study ”, Tourism Analysis , Vol. 19 No. 6 , pp. 731 - 740 .

Phillips , P.C. and Hansen , B.E. ( 1990 ), “ Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes ”, The Review of Economic Studies , Vol. 57 No. 1 , pp. 99 - 125 .

Phillips , P.C. and Perron , P. ( 1988 ), “ Testing for a unit root in time series regression ”, Biometrika , Vol. 75 No. 2 , pp. 335 - 346 .

Prentice , R. ( 1993 ), “ Community-driven tourism planning and residents’ preferences ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 14 No. 3 , pp. 218 - 227 .

Raymond , C. and Brown , G. ( 2007 ), “ A spatial method for assessing resident and visitor attitudes towards tourism growth and development ”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism , Vol. 15 No. 5 , pp. 520 - 540 .

Ridderstaat , J. , Croes , R. and Nijkamp , P. ( 2016 ), “ The tourism development–quality of life nexus in a small island destination ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 55 No. 1 , pp. 79 - 94 .

Robert , W.M. and Goeldner , C.R. ( 1986 ), Tourism, Principles. Practices, Philosophies , John Wiley and Sons, Inc . New York, NY .

Robine , J.M. and Ritchie , K. ( 1991 ), “ Healthy life expectancy: evaluation of global indicator of change in population health ”, BMJ , Vol. 302 No. 6774 , pp. 457 - 460 .

Roe , D. Ashley , C. Page , S. and Meyer , D. ( 2004 ), “ Tourism and the poor analysing and interpreting tourism statistics from a poverty perspective ”,

Shahbaz , M. ( 2013 ), “ Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan ”, Economic Modelling , Vol. 32 , pp. 496 - 506 .

Shahbaz , M. and Aamir , N. ( 2008 ), “ Macroeconomic determinants of the happiness of the poor: a case study of Pakistan ”,

Sharpley , R. ( 2014 ), “ Host perceptions of tourism: a review of the research ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 42 , pp. 37 - 49 .

Sharpley , R. and Telfer , D.J. ( 2014 ), “ Tourism and development: concepts and issues ”, Channel View Publications .

Sirgy , M.J. , Kruger , P.S. , Lee , D.-J. and Yu , G.B. ( 2011 ), “ How does a travel trip affect tourists’ life satisfaction? ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 50 No. 3 , pp. 261 - 275 .

Slee , B. , Farr , H. and Snowdon , P. ( 1997 ), “ The economic impact of alternative types of rural tourism ”, Journal of Agricultural Economics , Vol. 48 No. 1-3 , pp. 179 - 192 .

Smith , M.K. and Diekmann , A. ( 2017 ), “ Tourism and wellbeing ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 66 , pp. 1 - 13 .

Smith , M. and Puczkó , L. ( 2008 ), Health and Wellness Tourism , Routledge .

Spiegel , J. , Gonzalez , M. , Cabrera , G. , Catasus , S. , Vidal , C. and Yassi , A. ( 2007 ), “ Promoting health in response to global tourism expansion in Cuba ”, Health Promotion International , Vol. 23 No. 1 , pp. 60 - 69 .

Stylidis , D. , Biran , A. , Sit , J. and Szivas , E.M. ( 2014 ), “ Residents’ support for tourism development: the role of residents’ place image and perceived tourism impacts ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 45 , pp. 260 - 274 .

Tosun , C. ( 2002 ), “ Host perceptions of impacts: a comparative tourism study ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 29 No. 1 , pp. 231 - 253 .

Tyrrell , T. , Paris , C.M. and Biaett , V. ( 2013 ), “ A quantified triple bottom line for tourism: experimental results ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 52 No. 3 , pp. 279 - 293 .

Tyrrell , T. , Paris , C.M. and Casson , M. ( 2010 ), “ Evaluating tourism community preferences ”, Tourism Analysis , Vol. 15 No. 1 , pp. 121 - 124 .

UNWTO and UNDP ( 2017 ), Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals–Journey to 2030 , UNWTO Madrid .

UNWTO/GTERC ( 2017 ), “ Asia tourism trends 2017 edition ”.

Upchurch , R.S. and Teivane , U. ( 2000 ), “ Resident perceptions of tourism development in Riga ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 21 No. 5 , pp. 499 - 507 .

Uysal , M. , Perdue , R. and Sirgy , M.J. ( 2012a ), Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research: Enhancing the Lives of Tourists and Residents of Host Communities , Springer Science and Business Media .

Uysal , M. , Sirgy , M.J. and Perdue , R.R. ( 2012b ), “ The missing links and future research directions ”, Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research , Springer .

Uysal , M. , Woo , E. and Singal , M. ( 2012c ), “ The tourist area life cycle (TALC) and its effect on the quality-of-life (QOL) of destination community ”, Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research , Springer .

Uysal , M. , Sirgy , M.J. , Woo , E. and Kim , H.L. ( 2016 ), “ Quality of life (QOL) and well-being research in tourism ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 53 , pp. 244 - 261 .

Vargas-Sánchez , A. , Plaza-Mejia , M.D.L.Á. and Porras-Bueno , N. ( 2009 ), “ Understanding residents’ attitudes toward the development of industrial tourism in a former mining community ”, Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 47 No. 3 , pp. 373 - 387 .

Wang , S. and Xu , H. ( 2015 ), “ Influence of place-based senses of distinctiveness, continuity, self-esteem and self-efficacy on residents’ attitudes toward tourism ”, Tourism Management , Vol. 47 , pp. 241 - 250 .

Wheeler , F. and Laing , J. ( 2008 ), “ Tourism as a vehicle for liveable communities: case studies from regional Victoria ”, Annals of Leisure Research , Vol. 11 No. 1-2 , pp. 242 - 263 .

Wiseman , J. and Brasher , K. ( 2008 ), “ Community wellbeing in an unwell world: trends, challenges, and possibilities ”, Journal of Public Health Policy , Vol. 29 No. 3 , pp. 353 - 366 .

Woo , E. , Kim , H. and Uysal , M. ( 2015 ), “ Life satisfaction and support for tourism development ”, Annals of Tourism Research , Vol. 50 , pp. 84 - 97 .

WTTC ( 2017 ), “ Travel and tourism economic impact 2017 Pakistan ”,

Zivot , E. and Andrews , D.W. ( 1992 ), “ Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis ”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , Vol. 10 No. 3 , pp. 251 - 270 .

Corresponding author

About the authors.

Asif Khan is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Tourism and Hospitality, Hazara University, Mansehra, Pakistan. Further, he is PhD Research Scholar at the Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, School of Management Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. His research interests include tourism development, well-being, sustainable tourism and local development through policy planning. Email: [email protected]

Dr Sughra Bibi is a Postdoctoral Research Scholar at the Guanghua Law School, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. Her research interests include travel and tourism laws and legal innovations. Email: [email protected]

Jiaying Lyu (PhD) is an Associate Professor and Deputy Director at the Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

Mohammad Alam is a Senior Lecturer/HOD in the Department of Tourism and Hospitality, Hazara University, Mansehra, Pakistan. His research interests include tourism development, cultural tourism and policy planning. Email: [email protected]

Muhammad Mussa Khan is an independent research scholar. Currently he is studying in Zhejiang University, China. His research areas are tourism administration and management. Email: [email protected]

Dr Mohammad Nurunnabi is a renowned scholar. He is the Chairperson of the Department of Accounting, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Email: [email protected]

Related articles

All feedback is valuable.

Please share your general feedback

Report an issue or find answers to frequently asked questions

Contact Customer Support

Pakistan’s tourism - huge untapped potential and way forward

Travel and tourism contributed $7.6 billion to Pakistan’s economy in 2016

Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.

For more information, please see our Comments FAQ

Entertainment

JK Rowling, female athletes criticise transgender sprinter Valentina Petrillo at Paralympics 2024

Jenn Tran speaks out on Bachelorette breakup

The Bachelorette season 21 was a wild ride, with Jenn choosing between three suitors - Devin, Marcus, and Jonathan.

Katy Perry reveals relationship red flags and her love language

Katy Perry opens up about her past relationships, revealing red flags she won't tolerate anymore.

Donald Trump discusses Jeffrey Epstein, calls him ‘good salesman’ on Lex Fridman Podcast

Trump discusses Epstein on Lex Fridman Podcast, expresses interest in releasing secret documents publicly.

Donald Trump addresses potential appearance on Joe Rogan podcast

Trump talks with Lex Fridman about potential appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, addressing rumors and speculation.

Rupee hits two-week low at Rs278.70/$

Exports rise 14% despite IMF delay

Significant gas reserves discovered in North Waziristan

Minister eyes stronger ties with Denmark

Stocks rebound on upbeat inflation data

Business leaders warn of foreign company exodus

IMF pours cold water on Punjab's cheap power plan

Florida surgeon sued after mistakenly removing patient’s liver

Hells Angels reportedly heading to Aurora, Colorado to confront Venezuelan gang

Female constable suspended over viral video in Karachi

Legal fraternity divided over increased SC judges

Doja Cat and Joseph Quinn Spotted Together in Italy, Escalating Romance Rumors

Unsustainable tourism and multi-storied constructions in G-B

Pioneering project

The future of Pakistan's IT industry

Transepistemic academia

Health, healing and humanities

The mosaic of drug trafficking and its consequences

• Entertainment News
• Life & Style
• Prayer Timing Pakistan
• Weather Forecast Pakistan
• Karachi Weather
• Lahore Weather
• Islamabad Weather
• Online Advertising
• Subscribe to the Paper
• Style Guide
• Privacy Policy
• Code of ethics

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, redistributed or derived from. Unless otherwise stated, all content is copyrighted © 2024 The Express Tribune.

Travel & Tourism - Pakistan

• Pakistan's Travel & Tourism market is projected to reach a revenue of US$3,738.00m in 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of 8.16% from 2024 to 2029, resulting in a projected market volume of US$5,533.00m by 2029.
• The market's largest market in Pakistan is the Package Holidays market, with a projected market volume of US$1,665.00m in 2024.
• By 2029, the number of users in this market is expected to amount to 22.17m users, with a user penetration of 10.5% in 2024 that is expected to hit 14.6% by 2029.
• Moreover, the average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to be US$145.70.
• Pakistan's Travel & Tourism market is also estimated to generate 66% of total revenue through online sales by 2029.
• In global comparison, United States is expected to generate the most revenue in this market with an estimated value of US$214bn in 2024.
• Pakistan's travel and tourism industry is growing rapidly, with an increase in domestic and international tourists exploring the country's cultural and natural attractions.

Key regions: Malaysia , Europe , Singapore , Vietnam , United States

Definition:

The Travel & Tourism market encompasses a diverse range of accommodation services catering to the needs and preferences of travelers. This dynamic market includes package holidays, hotel accommodations, private vacation rentals, camping experiences, and cruises.

The market consists of five further markets.

• The Cruises market covers multi-day vacation trips on a cruise ship. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues.
• The Vacation Rentals market comprises of private accommodation bookings which includes private holiday homes and houses as well as short-term rental of private rooms or flats.
• The Hotels market includes stays in hotels and professionally run guest houses.
• The Package Holidays market comprises of travel deals that normally contain travel and accommodation sold for one price, although optional further provisions can be included such as catering and tourist services.
• The Camping market includes bookings at camping sites for pitches using tents, campervans, or trailers. These can be associated with big chains or privately managed campsites.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Travel & Tourism market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues and users for the above-mentioned markets. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year. Additional definitions for each market can be found within the respective market pages.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

Prominent players in this sector include online travel agencies (OTAs) like Expedia and Opodo, as well as tour operators such as TUI. Specialized platforms like Hotels.com, Booking.com, and Airbnb facilitate the online booking of hotels and private accommodations, contributing significantly to the market's vibrancy.

For further information on the data displayed, refer to the info button right next to each box.

• Bookings directly via the website of the service provider, travel agencies, online travel agencies (OTAs) or telephone

out-of-scope

• Business trips
• Other forms of trips (e.g. excursions, etc.)

Travel & Tourism

• Vacation Rentals
• Package Holidays
• Analyst Opinion

Pakistan's Travel & Tourism market has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, attracting both domestic and international travelers to explore its diverse landscapes and rich cultural heritage. Customer preferences: Travelers in Pakistan are increasingly seeking unique and authentic experiences, moving away from traditional tourist hotspots to explore off-the-beaten-path destinations. There is a growing interest in adventure tourism, eco-tourism, and cultural exchanges, driving the demand for specialized tour operators and sustainable accommodation options. Trends in the market: One notable trend in the Pakistani Travel & Tourism market is the rise of domestic tourism, with more locals choosing to explore their own country. This trend can be attributed to improved infrastructure, increased disposable incomes, and a desire to support the local economy. Additionally, the digital revolution has made travel planning more accessible, with online booking platforms and social media influencing travel decisions. Local special circumstances: Pakistan's unique geographical location, nestled between South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, offers a diverse range of experiences for travelers. From the snow-capped peaks of the Himalayas in the north to the pristine beaches of the Arabian Sea in the south, Pakistan has something to offer every type of traveler. The country's rich history and cultural heritage also attract history buffs and cultural enthusiasts from around the world. Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the Travel & Tourism market in Pakistan can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including government initiatives to promote tourism, infrastructure development projects, and increased international connectivity through new flight routes. Additionally, a stable political environment and improved security measures have helped boost confidence among travelers, both domestic and international, leading to a positive impact on the tourism industry.

• Methodology

Data coverage:

Modeling approach:

Additional notes:

• Sales Channels
• Travel Behavior
• User Demographics
• Global Comparison
• Key Market Indicators

Mon - Fri, 9am - 6pm (EST)

Mon - Fri, 9am - 5pm (SGT)

Mon - Fri, 10:00am - 6:00pm (JST)

Mon - Fri, 9:30am - 5pm (GMT)

• Get immediate access to all Market Insights, reports & statistics
• Download data in multiple formats for collaborative research
• Includes usage & publication rights for sharing data externally

Pakistan attracted $16bn in visitor spending in 2022: World Bank

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan attracted $16 billion in visitor spending in 2022 which is projected to touch $30 billion in 2033, says the World Bank.

The bank on its website stated that the travel and tourism sector’s total contribution to Pakistan’s GDP was 5.9 percent in 2022 and 4.2 million jobs. This is sub-optimal considering the diverse tourist sites located across the country.

Pakistan experienced an unprecedented surge in domestic tourism immediately after the Covid-induced travel restrictions were lifted: In 2021 and 2022, over 1.2 million domestic and international tourists visited the country’s Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province alone.

$209m EDEIP: World Bank rates implementation progress as moderately satisfactory

To manage this increasing all-season footfall of visitors while harnessing its understated economic potential, the local authorities, communities, and private sector require resources, equipment and training without losing focus on green and inclusive tourism.

Travel Responsibly for Experiencing Eco-tourism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (TREK) initiative – a partnership between the Government of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the World Bank (WB), and Nestlé Pakistan to promote and support responsible tourism initiatives, complements the ongoing activities of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Integrated Tourism Development Project (KITE) project for heritage preservation and tourism infrastructure development.

Since 2020, it has completed awareness campaigns for tourists, and training of local communities and hospitality businesses on waste management.

TREK has trained over 650 participants from more than 150 hotels and restaurants in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s tourist areas. The beneficiaries also included local communities, local authorities and academia of Peshawar, Nathiagali, Abbottabad, Swat, Naran, and Chitral districts.

These trainings concentrated on solid waste minimisation, segregation, management, and recycling techniques. Public service messages on responsible tourism were also launched through social media and radio campaigns in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and cities of Islamabad and Lahore.

Most country’s domestic tourists are concentrated in these geographies and were thus, able to receive communication on tourist helplines on the importance of keeping the sites litter-free.

10,000 reusable bags were distributed to tourists and the hotel association in tourist hotspots aiming to encourage their use and minimise littering. In parallel, the IDA-financed KITE project provided waste bins, garbage collection and compacting machinery to the local authorities in Nathiagali, Naran, Chitral, and Kumrat districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and a few locations in Punjab province, and installed 50 tourist information signboards to complement the awareness campaigns.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023

Comments are closed.

Pakistan’s remittance inflow stands at $2.9bn in August, up 40.5% year-on-year

Oil prices edge up as storm approaches us gulf coast after week of heavy losses, pakistan not on imf agenda till sept 18, no word on external financing yet, pti’s barrister gohar, marwat, shaheen arrested in islamabad, rupee falls marginally against us dollar, finance minister aurangzeb says private sector has to lead country, kse-100 sheds 283 points in another range-bound session, accountability court bars nab from handling toshakhana reference, assigns it to fia, sc marks start of new judicial year with full court reference, bf biosciences gets drap nod for brownfield expansion, millat tractors post profit of rs10.6bn in fy24, up 167%, read more stories.

Most Popular

• Past 3 Days

Settlement of circular debt thru adjustments strong probability

Eid Milad-un-Nabi 2024: govt announces public holiday on September 17

Competition for new currency notes: SBP unveils winners, selected designs

Njli sarmaya growth fund rates.

Reko Diq project: AGP objects to Rs89.55bn GHPL investment in USD

Why monetary policy prudence is a virtue

Mahmood Achakzai announces nationwide movement if Imran Khan not released

AGP flags major discrepancy in tax collection

Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz launches new interest-free housing scheme

Coke, Pepsi boycott over Gaza lifts Pakistan, other countries’ local brands

Gold price per tola decreases Rs2,000 in Pakistan

Capacity-based model transition to take-and-pay model: 24 conditions proposed to strike new deals between govt, IPPs